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Premyer Liqa · Azerbaijan
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Şamaxı FK host Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Şamaxı FK Win — Şamaxı FK to win. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 52% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Şamaxı FK 3–2 Safa Baku.
Going into the match, Şamaxı FK had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Safa Baku had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 4 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Şamaxı FK's last 10 and 2 of Safa Baku's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Şamaxı FK averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Safa Baku averaged 0.43 scored and 1.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from Şamaxı FK and 0.68 from Safa Baku. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 13%, against 53%, 27% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Şamaxı FK (green) and Safa Baku (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Şamaxı FK Win | 52% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premyer Liqa matches that day
- Sumqayıt vs Araz · 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Premyer Liqa
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.62 · FT 2–1