Home › League stats › Cup › St. Truiden vs Lommel United
Cup · Belgium
St. Truiden vs Lommel United prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
St. Truiden host Lommel United in the Cup (Belgium) on 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is St. Truiden Win — St. Truiden to win. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: St. Truiden 4–1 Lommel United.
Going into the match, St. Truiden had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 19. Lommel United had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of St. Truiden's last 10 and 2 of Lommel United's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home St. Truiden averaged 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Lommel United averaged 1.58 scored and 1.58 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.99 goals from St. Truiden and 1.15 from Lommel United. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 21%, against 65%, 22% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between St. Truiden (green) and Lommel United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | WLLLW | 1.90 | 1.90 | 40% | 60% |
| Lommel United | WWDLL | 1.10 | 1.30 | 20% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · St. Truiden 1–1 Lommel United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 81% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| St. Truiden Win | 65% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Cup matches that day
- Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - KV Mechelen vs AS Eupen · 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 5–1 - Union St. Gilloise vs Nijlen · 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals - Rochefort vs Gent · 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Cup
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.50