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USL Championship · USA
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sporting JAX host Louisville City in the USL Championship (USA) on 21 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sporting JAX 0–2 Louisville City.
Going into the match, Sporting JAX had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 28. Louisville City had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sporting JAX's last 10 and 6 of Louisville City's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sporting JAX averaged 1.38 goals scored and 2.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Louisville City averaged 1.72 scored and 1.50 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Sporting JAX and 2.85 from Louisville City. From that it rates a home win at 10%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 74%, against 15%, 20% and 65% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sporting JAX (green) and Louisville City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAX | LLLLL | 0.90 | 2.80 | 50% | 70% |
| Louisville City | WWWDW | 1.40 | 0.90 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Louisville City 1–0 Sporting JAX
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Louisville City Win | 67% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Louisville City HT & FT | 46% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other USL Championship matches that day
- Brooklyn vs Birmingham Legion · 21 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–2