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USL Championship · USA
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sporting JAX host Birmingham Legion in the USL Championship (USA) on 14 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sporting JAX 0–1 Birmingham Legion.
Going into the match, Sporting JAX had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 29. Birmingham Legion had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Sporting JAX's last 10 and 6 of Birmingham Legion's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sporting JAX averaged 1.50 goals scored and 2.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Birmingham Legion averaged 1.08 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.26 goals from Sporting JAX and 2.35 from Birmingham Legion. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 61%, against 26%, 24% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sporting JAX (green) and Birmingham Legion (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAX | LLLLW | 0.90 | 2.90 | 50% | 70% |
| Birmingham Legion | LWLDD | 1.90 | 2.20 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Aug 2026 · Birmingham Legion 2–3 Sporting JAX
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other USL Championship matches that day
- Rhode Island vs Loudoun United · 14 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Rhode Island Win @ 1.53 · FT 1–0 - Hartford Athletic vs Charleston Battery · 14 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL Championship
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1