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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sparta Rotterdam host Willem II in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II.
Going into the match, Sparta Rotterdam had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 21. Willem II had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 and 7 of Willem II's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sparta Rotterdam averaged 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Willem II averaged 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.92 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 1.47 from Willem II. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 29%, against 58%, 22% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | DLLDL | 1.40 | 2.10 | 70% | 70% |
| Willem II | LLLDL | 1.00 | 2.40 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Sparta Rotterdam Win | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Eredivisie matches that day
- Telstar vs Feyenoord · 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 3–4 - ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven · 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · Eredivisie
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–1