Spaeri vs Gagra prediction and preview

23 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.59Market probability 58%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Spaeri host Gagra in the Erovnuli Liga (Georgia) on 23 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.59, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Spaeri had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 24. Gagra had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Spaeri's last 10 and 4 of Gagra's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Spaeri averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.93 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Gagra averaged 0.92 scored and 1.77 conceded across 13.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Spaeri and 1.26 from Gagra. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 31%, against 45%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Spaeri (green) and Gagra (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack67% – 33%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head85% – 15%

Goals75% – 25%

Overall strength65% – 34%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Spaeri	LDLLD	1.30	2.40	80%	70%
Gagra	LLDLD	0.60	1.70	40%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

17 Aug 2026 · Gagra 1–1 Spaeri
11 May 2026 · Spaeri 3–0 Gagra

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
BTTS 1st Half - No	76%	1.20
Double Chance 12	74%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	71%	1.28
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	62%	1.47
BTTS Yes	58%	1.59
Over 2.5 Goals	54%	1.75
Under 2.5 Goals	46%	2.05
Spaeri Win	45%	2.00

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.