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First NL · Croatia
Sesvete vs Jadran LP prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sesvete host Jadran LP in the First NL (Croatia) on 9 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sesvete 1–1 Jadran LP.
Going into the match, Sesvete had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 12. Jadran LP had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Sesvete's last 10 and 5 of Jadran LP's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sesvete averaged 1.67 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Jadran LP averaged 2.75 scored and 1.00 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Sesvete and 1.58 from Jadran LP. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 47%, against 41%, 29% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sesvete (green) and Jadran LP (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Sesvete Win | 41% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.