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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Selaya vs Naval Reinosa prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Selaya host Naval Reinosa in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Selaya Win — Selaya to win. It was published at odds of 1.75, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Selaya 3–2 Naval Reinosa.
Going into the match, Selaya had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Naval Reinosa had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4, with 2 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Selaya's last 9 and 1 of Naval Reinosa's last 4; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Selaya averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Naval Reinosa averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.10 goals from Selaya and 1.38 from Naval Reinosa. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 24%, against 51%, 26% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Selaya (green) and Naval Reinosa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selaya | LWLDW | 1.44 | 1.22 | 56% | 56% |
| Naval Reinosa | LLLD | 0.50 | 2.50 | 25% | 75% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Selaya Win | 51% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.81 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Selaya HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.