SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin prediction and preview

8 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC · Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.62Market probability 59%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

SC Freiburg host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 8 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, SC Freiburg had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 18. Union Berlin had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 24 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of SC Freiburg's last 10 and 4 of Union Berlin's last 10; 9 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home SC Freiburg averaged 2.80 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Union Berlin averaged 1.86 scored and 2.36 conceded across 14.

Our team-strength model expects about 3.52 goals from SC Freiburg and 0.98 from Union Berlin. From that it rates a home win at 84%, a draw at 11% and an away win at 6%, against 64%, 21% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between SC Freiburg (green) and Union Berlin (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form54% – 46%

Attack73% – 27%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head15% – 85%

Goals29% – 71%

Overall strength52% – 47%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
SC Freiburg	WWWLL	1.90	1.80	80%	90%
Union Berlin	DLDDW	0.80	2.40	40%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	79%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	78%	1.20
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.28
SC Freiburg Win	64%	1.48
Under 3.5 Goals	62%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	59%	1.62
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	59%	1.57
BTTS Yes	55%	1.75

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.