Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction and preview

2 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC · Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.44Market probability 64%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Sassuolo host Fiorentina in the Serie A (Italy) on 2 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Sassuolo had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 23. Fiorentina had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 21 conceded.

Both teams scored in 9 of Sassuolo's last 10 and 7 of Fiorentina's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sassuolo averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Fiorentina averaged 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded across 10.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Sassuolo and 2.26 from Fiorentina. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 56%, against 33%, 26% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Sassuolo (green) and Fiorentina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form33% – 67%

Attack50% – 50%

Defence40% – 60%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals40% – 60%

Overall strength44% – 55%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Sassuolo	LLLDL	1.50	2.30	90%	70%
Fiorentina	DLLLD	1.40	2.10	70%	90%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

26 Apr 2026 · Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	75%	1.25
Double Chance 12	74%	1.28
BTTS 1st Half - No	73%	1.28
BTTS Yes	64%	1.44
Over 2.5 Goals	61%	1.57
Under 3.5 Goals	60%	1.62
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	58%	1.62
Over 8.5 Corners	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.