Atalanta vs Parma prediction and preview

2 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.20Market probability 79%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Atalanta host Parma in the Serie A (Italy) on 2 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 79% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Atalanta had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 19. Parma had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Atalanta's last 10 and 4 of Parma's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atalanta averaged 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Parma averaged 0.44 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from Atalanta and 0.63 from Parma. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 12%, against 63%, 21% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Atalanta (green) and Parma (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form56% – 44%

Attack79% – 21%

Defence43% – 57%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals55% – 45%

Overall strength61% – 38%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Atalanta	DDLLW	1.70	1.90	70%	70%
Parma	DLLLW	0.50	1.70	40%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	79%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	78%	1.20
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	73%	1.28
Atalanta Win	64%	1.50
Under 3.5 Goals	63%	1.50
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	61%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	58%	1.62
BTTS Yes	53%	1.75

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.