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USL League One · USA
Sarasota Paradise vs Naples prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sarasota Paradise host Naples in the USL League One (USA) on 21 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.63, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sarasota Paradise 2–3 Naples.
Going into the match, Sarasota Paradise had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 13. Naples had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Sarasota Paradise's last 10 and 3 of Naples's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sarasota Paradise averaged 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Naples averaged 0.94 scored and 2.00 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.00 goals from Sarasota Paradise and 1.12 from Naples. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 20%, against 46%, 25% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sarasota Paradise (green) and Naples (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota Paradise | WWLWW | 2.60 | 1.30 | 90% | 70% |
| Naples | WWWWD | 1.20 | 1.00 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Jun 2026 · Naples 0–2 Sarasota Paradise
- 12 Apr 2026 · Naples 2–0 Sarasota Paradise
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.51 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Sarasota Paradise Win | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other USL League One matches that day
- NY Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity · 21 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · USL League One
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.49 · FT 3–3