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Primera Nacional · Argentina
San Telmo vs Almirante Brown prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
San Telmo host Almirante Brown in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: San Telmo 3–2 Almirante Brown.
Going into the match, San Telmo had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Almirante Brown had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of San Telmo's last 10 and 1 of Almirante Brown's last 10; 4 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home San Telmo averaged 0.82 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Almirante Brown averaged 0.55 scored and 0.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.76 goals from San Telmo and 0.74 from Almirante Brown. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 30%, against 34%, 34% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between San Telmo (green) and Almirante Brown (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Telmo | WLWDL | 0.80 | 1.10 | 20% | 40% |
| Almirante Brown | LLDDW | 0.80 | 0.50 | 10% | 10% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Almirante Brown 0–0 San Telmo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
| San Telmo Win | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.