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Erovnuli Liga 2 · Georgia
Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Samtredia host Aragvi Dusheti in the Erovnuli Liga 2 (Georgia) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Samtredia 0–1 Aragvi Dusheti.
Going into the match, Samtredia had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 25 and conceding 4. Aragvi Dusheti had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Samtredia's last 10 and 6 of Aragvi Dusheti's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Samtredia averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Aragvi Dusheti averaged 0.88 scored and 0.94 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.31 goals from Samtredia and 1.00 from Aragvi Dusheti. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 14%, against 73%, 17% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samtredia | WLWLW | 2.50 | 0.40 | 20% | 60% |
| Aragvi Dusheti | LWLLL | 1.30 | 1.80 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · Aragvi Dusheti 2–4 Samtredia
- 6 May 2026 · Samtredia 2–0 Aragvi Dusheti
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| Samtredia Win | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.75 |
| Samtredia 1st Half Win | 55% | 1.62 |
| Samtredia HT & FT | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.85 |
| 3-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Erovnuli Liga 2 matches that day
- Kolkheti Poti vs Odishi 1919 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Erovnuli Liga 2
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 4–0 - Gareji vs Telavi · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Erovnuli Liga 2
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.55 · FT 2–1 - Merani Martvili vs Shturmi · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Erovnuli Liga 2
Published pick: Double Chance X2