Şahdağ vs Səbail prediction and preview

The PunterPick prediction

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Şahdağ host Səbail in the Birinci Dasta (Azerbaijan) on 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Şahdağ to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Şahdağ 1–0 Səbail.

Going into the match, Şahdağ had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 3. Səbail had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 8 conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of Şahdağ's last 10 and 5 of Səbail's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Şahdağ averaged 2.20 goals scored and 0.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Səbail averaged 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded across 7.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Şahdağ and 0.48 from Səbail. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 11%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 89%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Şahdağ (green) and Səbail (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Form before the match

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

• 15 May 2026 · Səbail 0–0 Şahdağ

Other markets we priced

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.

More on this match

• Şahdağ form and statistics
• Səbail form and statistics
• Birinci Dasta statistics

Other Birinci Dasta matches that day

• Xankəndi FK vs Mingəçevir · 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Birinci Dasta
  Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60 · FT 0–1