Home › League stats › USL Championship › Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights
USL Championship · USA
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Sacramento Republic host Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship (USA) on 1 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Sacramento Republic 3–2 Las Vegas Lights.
Going into the match, Sacramento Republic had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Las Vegas Lights had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Sacramento Republic's last 10 and 4 of Las Vegas Lights's last 10; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Sacramento Republic averaged 1.73 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Las Vegas Lights averaged 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.60 goals from Sacramento Republic and 0.84 from Las Vegas Lights. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 18%, against 60%, 23% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Sacramento Republic (green) and Las Vegas Lights (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | WDWDD | 1.40 | 0.70 | 40% | 30% |
| Las Vegas Lights | DWLLL | 0.90 | 0.90 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Sacramento Republic
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Sacramento Republic Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.