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Virsliga · Latvia
Rīgas FS vs FS Jelgava prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rīgas FS host FS Jelgava in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rīgas FS 4–2 FS Jelgava.
Going into the match, Rīgas FS had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 13. FS Jelgava had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Rīgas FS's last 10 and 3 of FS Jelgava's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rīgas FS averaged 2.94 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 16 matches; away from home FS Jelgava averaged 1.20 scored and 1.67 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.80 goals from Rīgas FS and 0.63 from FS Jelgava. From that it rates a home win at 82%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 5%, against 82%, 12% and 5% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rīgas FS (green) and FS Jelgava (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | DWDLW | 1.90 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
| FS Jelgava | LDLWW | 0.80 | 1.30 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Jul 2026 · FS Jelgava 0–1 Rīgas FS
- 12 Jul 2026 · Rīgas FS 2–0 FS Jelgava
- 21 May 2026 · Rīgas FS 4–0 FS Jelgava
- 8 Apr 2026 · FS Jelgava 0–1 Rīgas FS
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Rīgas FS 1st Half Win | 63% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.57 |
| Rīgas FS HT & FT | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.71 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 53% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.