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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Renate vs Giana Erminio prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Renate host Giana Erminio in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Renate 2–2 Giana Erminio.
Going into the match, Renate had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Giana Erminio had won 0, drawn 5 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Renate's last 10 and 7 of Giana Erminio's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Renate averaged 0.88 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Giana Erminio averaged 0.80 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from Renate and 1.35 from Giana Erminio. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 34%, against 46%, 28% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Renate (green) and Giana Erminio (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renate | DLLDD | 0.90 | 1.80 | 70% | 60% |
| Giana Erminio | DDDDL | 0.90 | 1.60 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Renate Win | 48% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.