Quilmes vs San Martin Tucuman prediction and preview

24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance 1XOdds 1.28Market probability 75%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Quilmes host San Martin Tucuman in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Quilmes to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Quilmes had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 8. San Martin Tucuman had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 15 conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of Quilmes's last 10 and 6 of San Martin Tucuman's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Quilmes averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.43 conceded across 14 matches; away from home San Martin Tucuman averaged 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded across 15.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Quilmes and 0.85 from San Martin Tucuman. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 27%, against 46%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Quilmes (green) and San Martin Tucuman (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form36% – 64%

Attack20% – 80%

Defence64% – 36%

Head-to-head25% – 75%

Goals38% – 63%

Overall strength42% – 57%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Quilmes	LLDWL	0.60	0.80	0%	20%
San Martin Tucuman	WLWDL	1.60	1.50	60%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

7 Jun 2026 · San Martin Tucuman 0–0 Quilmes

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 1X	75%	1.28
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Over 1.5 Goals	65%	1.44
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	63%	1.50
Under 2.5 Goals	60%	1.57
BTTS No	55%	1.67
Quilmes Win	46%	2.00
Over 2.5 Goals	40%	2.35

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.