Home › League stats › Premyer Liqa › Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku
Premyer Liqa · Azerbaijan
Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Qarabag host Neftchi Baku in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Qarabag 3–3 Neftchi Baku.
Going into the match, Qarabag had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 7. Neftchi Baku had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Qarabag's last 10 and 4 of Neftchi Baku's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Qarabag averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Neftchi Baku averaged 1.82 scored and 0.64 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.64 goals from Qarabag and 1.21 from Neftchi Baku. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 27%, against 50%, 27% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | WWDWW | 1.50 | 0.70 | 40% | 30% |
| Neftchi Baku | DWWWL | 2.10 | 1.00 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 Apr 2026 · Neftchi Baku 2–1 Qarabag
- 26 Apr 2026 · Neftchi Baku 1–5 Qarabag
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premyer Liqa matches that day
- Qabala vs Sabah FA · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Premyer Liqa
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–4