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Premyer Liqa · Azerbaijan
Qabala vs Sabah FA prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Qabala host Sabah FA in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Qabala 0–4 Sabah FA.
Going into the match, Qabala had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Sabah FA had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Qabala's last 10 and 3 of Sabah FA's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Qabala averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Sabah FA averaged 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.49 goals from Qabala and 2.35 from Sabah FA. From that it rates a home win at 5%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 78%, against 11%, 21% and 68% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Qabala (green) and Sabah FA (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Sabah FA Win | 70% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premyer Liqa matches that day
- Qarabag vs Neftchi Baku · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Premyer Liqa
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44