Home › League stats › Liga 1 › PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya
Liga 1 · Indonesia
PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
PSM Makassar host Persebaya Surabaya in the Liga 1 (Indonesia) on 22 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Persebaya Surabaya to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: PSM Makassar 1–0 Persebaya Surabaya.
Going into the match, PSM Makassar had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 22. Persebaya Surabaya had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of PSM Makassar's last 10 and 5 of Persebaya Surabaya's last 10; 8 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home PSM Makassar averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Persebaya Surabaya averaged 2.00 scored and 0.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.80 goals from PSM Makassar and 1.52 from Persebaya Surabaya. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 53%, against 28%, 27% and 45% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between PSM Makassar (green) and Persebaya Surabaya (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSM Makassar | WLDDL | 1.10 | 2.20 | 60% | 80% |
| Persebaya Surabaya | DWDWD | 1.20 | 0.60 | 50% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
| Persebaya Surabaya Win | 45% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga 1 matches that day
- Persepam Madura Utd vs Persib Bandung · 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Liga 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 · FT 1–0 - Persik Kediri vs PSS Sleman · 22 Oct 2026, 08:30 UTC · Liga 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.66 · FT 2–1