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League Two · England
Port Vale vs Rochdale prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Port Vale host Rochdale in the League Two (England) on 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Port Vale had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Rochdale had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Port Vale's last 10 and 5 of Rochdale's last 10; 1 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Port Vale averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Rochdale averaged 0.92 scored and 1.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.70 goals from Port Vale and 0.67 from Rochdale. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 13%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Port Vale (green) and Rochdale (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Port Vale Win | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
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