Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.40Market probability 67%Final score 3–4

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Pogoń Siedlce host Stal Rzeszów in the I Liga (Poland) on 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Pogoń Siedlce 3–4 Stal Rzeszów.

Going into the match, Pogoń Siedlce had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Stal Rzeszów had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 9 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Pogoń Siedlce's last 10 and 6 of Stal Rzeszów's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pogoń Siedlce averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Stal Rzeszów averaged 1.14 scored and 1.79 conceded across 14.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.44 goals from Pogoń Siedlce and 1.68 from Stal Rzeszów. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 42%, against 42%, 28% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Pogoń Siedlce (green) and Stal Rzeszów (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form37% – 63%

Attack38% – 62%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head38% – 62%

Goals44% – 56%

Overall strength43% – 57%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Pogoń Siedlce	LLWDD	1.10	1.20	50%	50%
Stal Rzeszów	LDWWW	1.40	0.90	60%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

10 May 2026 · Pogoń Siedlce 1–2 Stal Rzeszów

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
BTTS 1st Half - No	78%	1.20
Over 1.5 Goals	76%	1.22
Double Chance 12	73%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.36
Under 3.5 Goals	67%	1.40
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	65%	1.44
BTTS Yes	58%	1.67
Over 2.5 Goals	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.