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I Liga · Poland
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lechia Gdansk host Arka Gdynia in the I Liga (Poland) on 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka Gdynia.
Going into the match, Lechia Gdansk had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 12. Arka Gdynia had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Lechia Gdansk's last 10 and 4 of Arka Gdynia's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lechia Gdansk averaged 1.45 goals scored and 2.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Arka Gdynia averaged 0.91 scored and 1.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.70 goals from Lechia Gdansk and 1.43 from Arka Gdynia. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 32%, against 41%, 27% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lechia Gdansk (green) and Arka Gdynia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia Gdansk | WWWWL | 2.40 | 1.20 | 80% | 80% |
| Arka Gdynia | LLLDW | 1.50 | 1.30 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other I Liga matches that day
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · I Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 - ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie · 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · I Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44