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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Piratas vs Tapatío prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Piratas host Tapatío in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Piratas Win & Over 1.5 Goals — Piratas Win & Over 1.5 Goals. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Piratas had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 12. Tapatío had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Piratas's last 10 and 7 of Tapatío's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Piratas averaged 2.33 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Tapatío averaged 1.11 scored and 2.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.79 goals from Piratas and 0.94 from Tapatío. From that it rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 9%, against 71%, 17% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Piratas (green) and Tapatío (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Piratas Win | 75% | 1.33 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Piratas 1st Half Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.76 |
| Piratas HT & FT | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga de Expansión MX matches that day
- Durango vs Monarcas · 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Cancún vs CDS Tampico Madero · 1 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.20 - Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala · 31 Oct 2026, 21:45 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes