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USL Championship · USA
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Phoenix Rising host Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship (USA) on 11 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Phoenix Rising 3–2 Las Vegas Lights.
Going into the match, Phoenix Rising had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Las Vegas Lights had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Phoenix Rising's last 10 and 4 of Las Vegas Lights's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Phoenix Rising averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Las Vegas Lights averaged 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Phoenix Rising and 1.40 from Las Vegas Lights. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 32%, against 51%, 25% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Phoenix Rising (green) and Las Vegas Lights (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising | LLLWD | 1.30 | 1.60 | 80% | 70% |
| Las Vegas Lights | WLDWL | 1.00 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Phoenix Rising
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Phoenix Rising Win | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.