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Serie D - Girone D · Italy
Pavia vs Varesina prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Pavia host Varesina in the Serie D - Girone D (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. No bookmaker price was available for this market when the prediction was published, so no percentage is shown.
Final score: Pavia 2–2 Varesina.
Going into the match, Pavia had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 18. Varesina had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Pavia's last 10 and 7 of Varesina's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pavia averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Varesina averaged 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.94 goals from Pavia and 1.52 from Varesina. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 50%. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Pavia (green) and Varesina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.