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Ligue 1 · France
Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes prediction and preview
7 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Paris Saint Germain host Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1 (France) on 7 Nov 2026, 20:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 52% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Paris Saint Germain had won 10, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 36 and conceding 9. Estac Troyes had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Paris Saint Germain's last 10 and 4 of Estac Troyes's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Paris Saint Germain averaged 2.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Estac Troyes averaged 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.89 goals from Paris Saint Germain and 0.65 from Estac Troyes. From that it rates a home win at 82%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 5%, against 86%, 9% and 5% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Paris Saint Germain (green) and Estac Troyes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | WWWWW | 3.60 | 0.90 | 70% | 80% |
| Estac Troyes | WDLLD | 0.90 | 1.80 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain 1st Half Win | 69% | 1.36 |
| Paris Saint Germain HT & FT | 67% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| 3-0 | 14% | 7.00 |
| 2-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
| 4-0 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Auxerre vs Paris FC · 7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73