Auxerre vs Paris FC prediction and preview

7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.73Market probability 56%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Auxerre host Paris FC in the Ligue 1 (France) on 7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Auxerre had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 26. Paris FC had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 9 of Auxerre's last 10 and 6 of Paris FC's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Auxerre averaged 2.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Paris FC averaged 1.22 scored and 2.00 conceded across 9.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.43 goals from Auxerre and 2.12 from Paris FC. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 52%, against 22%, 24% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Auxerre (green) and Paris FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form44% – 56%

Attack44% – 56%

Defence40% – 60%

Head-to-head75% – 25%

Goals83% – 17%

Overall strength55% – 44%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Auxerre	LDWLW	1.70	2.60	90%	80%
Paris FC	WLWLW	1.80	1.30	60%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance X2	77%	1.20
Over 1.5 Goals	77%	1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No	77%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	65%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
BTTS Yes	57%	1.67
Over 2.5 Goals	56%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.