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J3 League · Japan
Parceiro Nagano vs Matsumoto Yamaga prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Parceiro Nagano host Matsumoto Yamaga in the J3 League (Japan) on 18 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Parceiro Nagano to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Parceiro Nagano 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga.
Going into the match, Parceiro Nagano had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Matsumoto Yamaga had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Parceiro Nagano's last 10 and 4 of Matsumoto Yamaga's last 10; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Parceiro Nagano averaged 0.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Matsumoto Yamaga averaged 1.13 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from Parceiro Nagano and 1.06 from Matsumoto Yamaga. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 36%, against 31%, 28% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Parceiro Nagano (green) and Matsumoto Yamaga (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parceiro Nagano | WLLWD | 1.10 | 1.60 | 50% | 40% |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | LWLWW | 0.90 | 1.00 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Apr 2026 · Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Parceiro Nagano
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J3 League matches that day
- Kamatamare Sanuki vs Roasso Kumamoto · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25 - Biwako Shiga vs Sagamihara · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 0–2 - Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kochi United · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC · J3 League
Published pick: Renofa Yamaguchi Win @ 1.57 · FT 2–0