Pakhtakor vs Neftchi prediction and preview

23 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

BTTS YesOdds 1.55Market probability 59%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Pakhtakor host Neftchi in the Super League (Uzbekistan) on 23 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Pakhtakor had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 8. Neftchi had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 18 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Pakhtakor's last 10 and 6 of Neftchi's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Pakhtakor averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Neftchi averaged 1.75 scored and 1.67 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from Pakhtakor and 1.11 from Neftchi. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 23%, against 43%, 26% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Pakhtakor (green) and Neftchi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form57% – 43%

Attack52% – 48%

Defence73% – 27%

Head-to-head60% – 40%

Goals70% – 30%

Overall strength59% – 40%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Pakhtakor	DDWWD	1.50	0.80	70%	40%
Neftchi	LWLDW	1.90	1.80	60%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

29 Aug 2026 · Neftchi 1–0 Pakhtakor
9 Apr 2026 · Neftchi 0–1 Pakhtakor

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.22
Double Chance 12	73%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	70%	1.33
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.47
BTTS Yes	59%	1.55
Under 9.5 Corners	56%	1.67
Over 2.5 Goals	55%	1.65
Under 2.5 Goals	45%	2.20

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.