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Iraqi League · Iraq
Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Newroz host Al Minaa Basra in the Iraqi League (Iraq) on 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Newroz to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Newroz 2–0 Al Minaa Basra.
Going into the match, Newroz had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Al Minaa Basra had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Newroz's last 10 and 4 of Al Minaa Basra's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Newroz averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Al Minaa Basra averaged 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Newroz and 0.66 from Al Minaa Basra. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 16%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Newroz (green) and Al Minaa Basra (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newroz | WDWWW | 1.20 | 0.70 | 20% | 30% |
| Al Minaa Basra | WDLDL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · Newroz 4–1 Al Minaa Basra
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.68 |
| Newroz Win | 47% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
| Newroz HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Iraqi League matches that day
- Al Kahrabaa vs Al Talaba · 16 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Iraqi League
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.33 · FT 0–1 - Diyala vs Naft Maysan · 16 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Iraqi League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X · FT 2–0 - Karbala vs Gharraf · 16 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Iraqi League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X · FT 1–2