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Prva Liga · Serbia
Naftagas vs Napredak prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Naftagas host Napredak in the Prva Liga (Serbia) on 11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Naftagas 0–0 Napredak.
Going into the match, Naftagas had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 14. Napredak had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Naftagas's last 10 and 6 of Napredak's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Naftagas averaged 2.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Napredak averaged 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from Naftagas and 0.66 from Napredak. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 16%, against 36%, 29% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Naftagas (green) and Napredak (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Naftagas Win | 35% | 2.50 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.