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Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Sweden
Nacka Iliria vs Karlslund prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Nacka Iliria host Karlslund in the Division 2 - Södra Svealand (Sweden) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Nacka Iliria 1–4 Karlslund.
Going into the match, Nacka Iliria had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Karlslund had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Nacka Iliria's last 10 and 6 of Karlslund's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Nacka Iliria averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Karlslund averaged 1.55 scored and 2.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.65 goals from Nacka Iliria and 1.73 from Karlslund. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 40%, against 54%, 23% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Nacka Iliria (green) and Karlslund (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacka Iliria | WWLDL | 1.30 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
| Karlslund | DWLDW | 2.00 | 1.60 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · Karlslund 2–1 Nacka Iliria
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Nacka Iliria Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.