MVV vs Heracles prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Heracles WinOdds 1.44Market probability 65%Final score 1–5

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

MVV host Heracles in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Heracles Win — Heracles to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: MVV 1–5 Heracles.

Going into the match, MVV had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 25. Heracles had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 31 scored and 12 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of MVV's last 10 and 6 of Heracles's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home MVV averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Heracles averaged 2.14 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.19 goals from MVV and 2.69 from Heracles. From that it rates a home win at 14%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 69%, against 14%, 21% and 65% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between MVV (green) and Heracles (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form23% – 77%

Attack29% – 71%

Defence25% – 75%

Head-to-head20% – 80%

Goals33% – 67%

Overall strength26% – 73%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
MVV	LLWLL	1.10	2.50	50%	60%
Heracles	WDWLW	3.10	1.20	60%	80%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	76%	1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No	73%	1.28
Heracles Win	66%	1.44
BTTS Yes	60%	1.53
Under 3.5 Goals	54%	1.73
Under 10.5 Corners	54%	1.73
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	54%	1.73
Over 3.5 Goals	46%	2.00

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.