Moreirense vs Estrela prediction and preview

31 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.30Market probability 72%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Moreirense host Estrela in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 31 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Moreirense had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 17. Estrela had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 18 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Moreirense's last 10 and 7 of Estrela's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Moreirense averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Estrela averaged 1.75 scored and 1.88 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Moreirense and 1.59 from Estrela. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 41%, against 32%, 29% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Moreirense (green) and Estrela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form64% – 36%

Attack58% – 42%

Defence53% – 47%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength52% – 47%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Moreirense	WLLDW	1.10	1.70	50%	60%
Estrela	LWLLD	1.60	1.80	70%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

2 May 2026 · Moreirense 3–2 Estrela

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	72%	1.33
Over 1.5 Goals	72%	1.28
Under 3.5 Goals	72%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	66%	1.40
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.40
BTTS Yes	54%	1.75
Under 2.5 Goals	52%	1.85
Over 2.5 Goals	48%	1.95

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.