Monza vs Cagliari prediction and preview

19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.33Market probability 70%Final score 4–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Monza host Cagliari in the Serie A (Italy) on 19 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Monza 4–0 Cagliari.

Going into the match, Monza had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 20. Cagliari had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 7 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Monza's last 10 and 4 of Cagliari's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monza averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Cagliari averaged 1.00 scored and 0.88 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.34 goals from Monza and 1.21 from Cagliari. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 32%, against 39%, 30% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Monza (green) and Cagliari (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form29% – 71%

Attack62% – 38%

Defence21% – 79%

Head-to-head36% – 64%

Goals33% – 67%

Overall strength33% – 66%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Monza	LDLWL	1.70	2.00	80%	80%
Cagliari	DWWWL	1.00	0.70	40%	30%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	70%	1.33
Double Chance 1X	69%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	69%	1.36
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	67%	1.40
Under 2.5 Goals	54%	1.73
Under 9.5 Corners	54%	1.73
BTTS Yes	52%	1.80
Over 2.5 Goals	46%	2.10

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.