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Primera A · Colombia
Millonarios vs Once Caldas prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Millonarios host Once Caldas in the Primera A (Colombia) on 21 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Millonarios Win — Millonarios to win. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Millonarios 1–1 Once Caldas.
Going into the match, Millonarios had won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Once Caldas had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Millonarios's last 10 and 4 of Once Caldas's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Millonarios averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.64 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Once Caldas averaged 1.33 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Millonarios and 0.95 from Once Caldas. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 26%, against 52%, 27% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 43%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Millonarios (green) and Once Caldas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | WDDDD | 1.80 | 1.20 | 90% | 50% |
| Once Caldas | WWDLL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Millonarios Win | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera A matches that day
- Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional · 20 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · Primera A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC · 20 Oct 2026, 23:15 UTC · Primera A
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.67 · FT 2–1 - Deportivo Pereira vs Chico · 20 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Primera A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 · FT 2–0