Maribor vs Celje prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 65%Final score 0–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Maribor host Celje in the 1. SNL (Slovenia) on 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Maribor 0–0 Celje.

Going into the match, Maribor had won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 10. Celje had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 14 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Maribor's last 10 and 4 of Celje's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maribor averaged 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Celje averaged 1.75 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Maribor and 1.08 from Celje. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 31%, against 43%, 25% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Maribor (green) and Celje (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form61% – 39%

Attack73% – 27%

Defence33% – 67%

Head-to-head15% – 85%

Goals33% – 67%

Overall strength48% – 51%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Maribor	WDDWD	1.90	1.00	80%	50%
Celje	LWDLL	0.70	1.40	40%	30%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

1 Aug 2026 · Celje 1–1 Maribor

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	79%	1.20
Double Chance 12	74%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	65%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
BTTS Yes	60%	1.62
Over 2.5 Goals	57%	1.65
Under 9.5 Corners	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.