Macara vs Independiente del Valle prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.30Market probability 70%Final score 1–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Macara host Independiente del Valle in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Macara 1–0 Independiente del Valle.

Going into the match, Macara had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Independiente del Valle had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 14 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Macara's last 10 and 8 of Independiente del Valle's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Macara averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Independiente del Valle averaged 2.25 scored and 1.00 conceded across 20.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from Macara and 1.45 from Independiente del Valle. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 39%, against 29%, 28% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Macara (green) and Independiente del Valle (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form55% – 45%

Attack45% – 55%

Defence53% – 47%

Head-to-head7% – 93%

Goals16% – 84%

Overall strength35% – 64%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Macara	WWWLW	1.30	1.20	60%	50%
Independiente del Valle	WWDWL	2.00	1.40	80%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

6 Sep 2026 · Independiente del Valle 3–1 Macara
16 May 2026 · Macara 0–3 Independiente del Valle

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	72%	1.28
Double Chance 12	71%	1.33
Under 3.5 Goals	70%	1.30
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	66%	1.40
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.40
Under 9.5 Corners	54%	1.73
BTTS Yes	53%	1.80
Under 2.5 Goals	51%	1.85

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.