Libertad vs Guayaquil City FC prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance 1XOdds 1.22Market probability 77%Final score 4–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Libertad host Guayaquil City FC in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Libertad to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Libertad 4–0 Guayaquil City FC.

Going into the match, Libertad had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 9. Guayaquil City FC had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 16 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Libertad's last 10 and 8 of Guayaquil City FC's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Libertad averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Guayaquil City FC averaged 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.17 goals from Libertad and 0.90 from Guayaquil City FC. From that it rates a home win at 66%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 13%, against 48%, 29% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Libertad (green) and Guayaquil City FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form59% – 41%

Attack47% – 53%

Defence64% – 36%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength55% – 44%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Libertad	WWLWD	1.70	0.90	50%	60%
Guayaquil City FC	WDWLL	1.80	1.60	80%	70%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

16 Aug 2026 · Guayaquil City FC 2–2 Libertad
22 Apr 2026 · Libertad 0–1 Guayaquil City FC

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 1X	77%	1.22
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	71%	1.33
Over 1.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	66%	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	56%	1.67
BTTS No	52%	1.80
Libertad Win	48%	1.91
Over 2.5 Goals	44%	2.15

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.