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Ligue 1 · France
Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lorient host Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1 (France) on 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lorient had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Stade Brestois 29 had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lorient's last 10 and 8 of Stade Brestois 29's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lorient averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Stade Brestois 29 averaged 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.56 goals from Lorient and 0.89 from Stade Brestois 29. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 20%, against 39%, 30% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lorient (green) and Stade Brestois 29 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | DWWLD | 0.90 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Stade Brestois 29 | LDWDL | 1.60 | 1.60 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| Double Chance 1X | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Estac Troyes vs Le Mans · 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67