Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 65%Final score 1–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Lille host Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1 (France) on 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Lille 1–1 Stade Brestois 29.

Going into the match, Lille had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Stade Brestois 29 had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 16 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Lille's last 10 and 8 of Stade Brestois 29's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lille averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Stade Brestois 29 averaged 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.91 goals from Lille and 1.07 from Stade Brestois 29. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 20%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Lille (green) and Stade Brestois 29 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form59% – 41%

Attack41% – 59%

Defence64% – 36%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength54% – 45%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Lille	LWWLW	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Stade Brestois 29	WDLLW	1.80	1.60	80%	80%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.22
Double Chance 1X	76%	1.22
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.30
Under 3.5 Goals	65%	1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	63%	1.50
BTTS Yes	57%	1.62
Over 2.5 Goals	56%	1.67
Lille Win	51%	1.85

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.