Estac Troyes vs Lens prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.57Market probability 61%Final score 1–3

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Estac Troyes host Lens in the Ligue 1 (France) on 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Estac Troyes 1–3 Lens.

Going into the match, Estac Troyes had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 19. Lens had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 16 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Estac Troyes's last 10 and 6 of Lens's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estac Troyes averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Lens averaged 2.25 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.06 goals from Estac Troyes and 1.91 from Lens. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 56%, against 25%, 24% and 51% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Estac Troyes (green) and Lens (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form43% – 57%

Attack40% – 60%

Defence38% – 62%

Head-to-head7% – 93%

Goals24% – 76%

Overall strength29% – 70%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Estac Troyes	LDLLL	1.30	1.90	60%	40%
Lens	LWLDW	1.50	1.60	60%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	76%	1.22
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.25
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.28
BTTS Yes	61%	1.53
Under 3.5 Goals	61%	1.57
Over 2.5 Goals	60%	1.57
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	59%	1.57
Under 9.5 Corners	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.