Leones del Norte vs Emelec prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance 1XOdds 1.22Market probability 77%Final score 1–3

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Leones del Norte host Emelec in the Liga Pro (Ecuador) on 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Leones del Norte to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Leones del Norte 1–3 Emelec.

Going into the match, Leones del Norte had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 15. Emelec had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Leones del Norte's last 10 and 5 of Emelec's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leones del Norte averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Emelec averaged 0.67 scored and 1.40 conceded across 15.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.17 goals from Leones del Norte and 1.06 from Emelec. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 32%, against 48%, 30% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Leones del Norte (green) and Emelec (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form56% – 44%

Attack38% – 63%

Defence54% – 46%

Head-to-head33% – 67%

Goals50% – 50%

Overall strength50% – 49%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Leones del Norte	LDLDW	0.90	1.50	50%	40%
Emelec	LLLWD	0.90	1.30	50%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

31 Aug 2026 · Emelec 2–1 Leones del Norte
4 May 2026 · Leones del Norte 2–0 Emelec

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 1X	77%	1.22
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	73%	1.28
Over 1.5 Goals	64%	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	61%	1.50
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	61%	1.53
BTTS No	56%	1.62
Over 8.5 Corners	56%	1.67
Leones del Norte Win	47%	1.90

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.