Lech Poznań II vs Polonia Środa prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.40Market probability 65%Final score 2–3

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Lech Poznań II host Polonia Środa in the III Liga - Group 2 (Poland) on 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Lech Poznań II 2–3 Polonia Środa.

Going into the match, Lech Poznań II had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 19. Polonia Środa had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 30 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of Lech Poznań II's last 10 and 7 of Polonia Środa's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lech Poznań II averaged 2.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Polonia Środa averaged 1.92 scored and 1.42 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from Lech Poznań II and 2.74 from Polonia Środa. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 58%, against 31%, 23% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Lech Poznań II (green) and Polonia Środa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form42% – 58%

Attack40% – 60%

Defence38% – 62%

Head-to-head85% – 15%

Goals71% – 29%

Overall strength49% – 50%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Lech Poznań II	LWDWD	1.70	1.90	80%	60%
Polonia Środa	WWDDW	3.00	1.70	70%	80%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	76%	1.21
Double Chance X2	70%	1.30
BTTS 1st Half - No	70%	1.30
BTTS Yes	67%	1.38
Over 2.5 Goals	65%	1.40
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	54%	1.70
Polonia Środa Win	47%	1.91
Polonia Środa HT & FT	32%	2.85

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.