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USL Championship · USA
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Las Vegas Lights host San Antonio in the USL Championship (USA) on 4 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Las Vegas Lights 1–0 San Antonio.
Going into the match, Las Vegas Lights had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 12. San Antonio had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Las Vegas Lights's last 10 and 3 of San Antonio's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Las Vegas Lights averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded across 14 matches; away from home San Antonio averaged 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.13 goals from Las Vegas Lights and 0.94 from San Antonio. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 29%, against 38%, 27% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Las Vegas Lights (green) and San Antonio (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Lights | LDWLL | 1.00 | 1.20 | 50% | 30% |
| San Antonio | LDDLD | 0.50 | 1.50 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Jul 2026 · San Antonio 1–2 Las Vegas Lights
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.