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FA Cup · Thailand
Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Khon Kaen United host BG Pathum United in the FA Cup (Thailand) on 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BG Pathum United Win — BG Pathum United to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Khon Kaen United 1–0 BG Pathum United.
Going into the match, Khon Kaen United had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 9 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. BG Pathum United had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Khon Kaen United's last 9 and 7 of BG Pathum United's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Khon Kaen United averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home BG Pathum United averaged 1.38 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.66 goals from Khon Kaen United and 0.80 from BG Pathum United. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 17%, against 17%, 23% and 60% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 17%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Khon Kaen United (green) and BG Pathum United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khon Kaen United | WWLWL | 1.56 | 0.78 | 33% | 44% |
| BG Pathum United | DLDLD | 1.50 | 1.60 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| BG Pathum United Win | 61% | 1.50 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| BG Pathum United HT & FT | 40% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- Ratchaburi vs Pattani · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 · FT 4–2 - Ayutthaya FC vs Muangthong United · 21 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 · FT 2–1 - Bangkok vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 21 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.30 · FT 0–2 - Rasi Salai United vs Port FC · 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Port FC Win @ 1.42 · FT 1–3 - Thap Luang United vs Rayong FC · 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 · FT 1–2 - Burapha United vs Chiangrai United · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–1 - Kasetsart FC vs Chanthaburi · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 · FT 1–3