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FA Cup · Thailand
Ayutthaya FC vs Muangthong United prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ayutthaya FC host Muangthong United in the FA Cup (Thailand) on 21 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.85, which the bookmaker market rated at about 51% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ayutthaya FC 2–1 Muangthong United.
Going into the match, Ayutthaya FC had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 24. Muangthong United had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 4 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Ayutthaya FC's last 10 and 2 of Muangthong United's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ayutthaya FC averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Muangthong United averaged 0.00 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from Ayutthaya FC and 0.73 from Muangthong United. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 19%, against 52%, 26% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ayutthaya FC (green) and Muangthong United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayutthaya FC | LDLWW | 0.80 | 2.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Muangthong United | DLLWL | 0.40 | 1.00 | 20% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.37 |
| Ayutthaya FC Win | 53% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Ayutthaya FC HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FA Cup matches that day
- Ratchaburi vs Pattani · 21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 · FT 4–2 - Bangkok vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 21 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.30 · FT 0–2 - Khon Kaen United vs BG Pathum United · 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BG Pathum United Win @ 1.50 · FT 1–0 - Rasi Salai United vs Port FC · 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Port FC Win @ 1.42 · FT 1–3 - Thap Luang United vs Rayong FC · 21 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65 · FT 1–2 - Burapha United vs Chiangrai United · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 1–1 - Kasetsart FC vs Chanthaburi · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · FA Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 · FT 1–3